Compare Interest rates predictions from August 2023 to now?

In my blog from 15 August 2023 this is what I wrote:

All banks are forecasting that the interest rate will remain at 4.1% until the end of 2023, except for ANZ who is predicting it will be 4.35% by the end of 2023 (I think that most of us will be hoping that ANZ is wrong).

The consensus seems to be that interest rates will be cut in 2024.

• CBA thinks the first cut will be in March 2024 and falling to 3.1% by the end of 2024.
• Westpac thinks that the first cut will be in the September 2024 quarter.
• NAB, the pessimist at the end of 2023, thinks 3.35% by end of 2024 and 3.1% in early 2025.
• ANZ is the most cautious, believing that rates will remain at 4.1% for an extended period in 2024.
• AMP believes there will be four cuts in 2024 starting in February 2024, although they don’t say how much those cuts will be.

So what has happened to interest rates since then?

There was an interest rate rise in November 2023 to 4.35% and the rate has been held since that time.  Every meeting of the Reserve Bank there seems to be talk about both rate hikes and cuts, but it seems to remain the same, which might be a blessing.

So what are banks predicting now?

In the August meeting of the Reserve Bank they were thinking about raising the interest rate to 4.6%.  After the meeting the Reserve Bank Governor effectively ruled out rate cuts before Christmas.

At a time when everyone would like a little bet of mortgage relief, it is a shame that can not happen.  I guess we will have to wait to see what happens in the next year.